Back to path GUIDEBOOKMoving Averages
UNIT 3

Moving Averages

A moving average smooths recent prices; its lag is the cost of filtering noise.

LookbackFast reactsSlow smooths
What it tells you

A rolling estimate of price level and the relationship between lookbacks.

When it is useful
  • Trend context
  • Rule-based exits
When it fails
  • Whipsaws in ranges
  • Late entries after fast moves
COMMON MISTAKE

Optimizing lookbacks until the historical chart looks perfect.

Evidence note

Time-series momentum has historical support, but turnover and regime shifts materially affect results.

60-SECOND CHEAT SHEET

Remember this.

  1. 1Short = fast
  2. 2Long = smooth
  3. 3Crossovers need regime context
NEXT ACTIVITYChoose the lookbackConnect lookback length to responsiveness and lag.
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