Back to path GUIDEBOOKCorrelation
UNIT 5

Correlated Bets

Different positions can respond to the same economic driver and behave like one large bet.

4 positions1 driverHidden concentration
What it tells you

How much positions may move together, especially under stress.

When it is useful
  • Portfolio sizing
  • Scenario analysis
When it fails
  • Historical correlation changes
  • Nonlinear exposures can hide
COMMON MISTAKE

Calling a portfolio diversified because it contains many tickers.

Evidence note

Correlation estimates are unstable; factor and scenario views can complement them.

60-SECOND CHEAT SHEET

Remember this.

  1. 1Count drivers, not tickers
  2. 2Stress correlation
  3. 3Size clusters together
NEXT ACTIVITYHidden Mega-BetSee when several positions are really one bet.
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